This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with 2 title fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to chase this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance with $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favourite contests to chase so I will be shooting some shots in that. Other than that, I will adhere to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good quantity of play in games. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the easiest money game punt of all time at $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Conclusion is now -195 and when we’re getting 5-rounds out of JJ using all the striking volume she puts out then we have a good floor there and it doesn’t matter if she wins or loses. At the cost she allows you to cover up for a few heavy favorites and when we could get 4 other spots to win using a ~40-point loss from JJ within our lineup then we will be sitting quite pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is presently lined at -495 for this battle. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes at least one 10-point knock down. If that can be from the 1st round, then you are currently at 100-points even if it’s just the 1st punch/kick of the night. At $8.8k that’s more than sufficient to give you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old today, so he can’t have a lot of time in the match left. I believe we function together with the favored here and throw him into our GPP lineups and then await the fireworks.
Underdog play of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week because of his wrestling/grappling possible. I think he’s a underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is probably the better striker of the two but he has never knocked anybody out, so I think we’ve got a good floor here at $7.3k even though this fight does stay standing because I don’t watch Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this fight and can win a decision with a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns each 15-minutes at a 57 percent precision, and when he’s becoming bogged up on the toes I am certain that he will be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a solid play in all formats and that I think he has a split decision win here since the street underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I’m fading a few fighters this week , but the person I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It’s not that I don’t believe she can win, because she for certain could, and I believe she does. But I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we would require a complete from her in this fight to receive 10x that salary and I think that’s quite unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll want FightMetric to count all her screams as important strikes. The most Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight up to now in her career is 83 DK points and that was contrary to Irene Aldana who places a much greater rate than Jessica Eye does. Even though she could get 83-points here then still would not be sufficient here to place her at the winning lineup in her $8.7k price label. I think if you are making 20 or less lineups that Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and if she gets a triumph it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and provide my entire DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my select predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
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